3rd UPDATE, 9:28PM: Captain America: Civil War is looking at an estimated $74M -$76M opening day, for a $176.4M-$182M opening according to industry estimates tonight. This range puts Civil War as the fifth highest opening of all-time, a gross that any studio would envy. Disney always saw the opening for this Marvel title here at $175M, while the industry pushed Civil War toward the $190M-$200M range. Nothing is broken here in the Marvel universe. Sequelitis just comes with the territory of big branded franchise movies. Make no mistake, this is a healthy start to the summer. To say that Civil War is falling beneath projections is petty, particularly when grosses are this high. Tracking can never predict how big these openers can go based on a small statistical sampling, particularly when their first choice/unaided awareness is flying off the chart.
The Russo brothers-directed threequel cost a reported $250M, which is the same pricetag as Ultron. That film, fueled by an estimated $180 global marketing budget cleared $1 billion worldwide, minting a net profit of $382M-plus. By Sunday, non-Disney B.O. analysts believe that Civil War will have amassed close to $600M worldwide, having already cleared $300M overseas today, and debuting in China, Argentina and Russia this weekend. Ultron grossed over $240M from its China theatrical release alone.
Civil War would take Iron Man 3‘s fifth place notch on the all time domestic openers chart ($174.1M), lining directly behind Avengers ($207.4M) and Age of Ultron ($191.3M).
Civil War‘s Friday is armed with $25M from Thursday previews. One scenario for Civil War’s weekend goes down as follows: a -20% dip Friday into Saturday for $58.8M tomorrow. That’s better than the -33% Friday-to-Saturday decline for Ultron which went from $84.4M to $56.5M. However, this Captain America is quite hot, and that word of mouth could still carry this film to higher grosses.
Look at the following: Civil War hit an A CinemaScore, a 74% definite recommend from ComScore, an 86% total positive score and a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. Avengers received an A+, but Civil War has the same CinemaScore as Ultron, and Captain America: Winter Solider. In fact, looking under Civil War‘s hood, it looks like the Russo brothers movie came within inches of an A+ since it hit that high grade with females (40%), under 18 (22%), 18-24 (18%), 25-34 (24%), under 25 (40%), and the blue hairs (50+ turned up at 11%). It was both males at 60% and the over 25 bunch (60%) who both gave Civil War As.
Warner Bros./DC’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice didn’t have all these golden tea leaves, despite adding fresh faces into its cinema universe (Wonder Woman, Aquaman) just like Civil War with Spider-Man 3.0 and Black Panther. Hence, look for solid holds in the weeks to come for Civil War, particularly as the amount of schools and colleges on summer break swell.
Huge want-to-see CinemaScores here: 64% came out because it was a Marvel movie, 54% because it was a superhero title, while 39% cited either Robert Downey Jr. or Chris Evans, and 24% smitten by Scarlett Johansson.
Ultron turned in a 2.4 multiple finaling at $459M stateside, so that gives you an idea where Civil War is heading. In regards to multi-quad threats, Civil War isn’t going to sweat until Memorial Day weekend when 20th Century Fox’s X-Men: Apocalypse and Disney’s Alice Through the Looking Glass get into a big brawl. One non-Disney distribution czar predicted that by the end of May “Civil War will have already made $400M”.
All together Disney is set to make $208M-plus off of three tiles in the top 10: Civil War in first, Jungle Book in second with a fourth frame take of $23.6M and Zootopia in fifth place with $3.3M during its 10th go-round. Add all three titles’ total running cumes up by Sunday and that equals over $797M at the domestic B.O.
After adding 106 theaters, Open Road’s Mother’s Day looks to remain unchanged with $8.4M, or at least go up by 5% over its debut a week ago for $100K more this weekend.
Fox Searchlight’s mystery drama A Bigger Splash starring Tilda Swinton, Ralph Fiennes and Dakota Johnson, is looking at a first FSS of $110K at five combined NYC and LA venues for a per theater that’s $21K-plus.
The top 10 films for the weekend of May 6-8, the first weekend of summer 2016 as of Friday PM:
1). Captain America: Civil War (Disney) 4,226 theaters / $74M-$76M Fri. (includes $25M previews) / 3-day cume: $176.4M-$182M / Wk 1
2). The Jungle Book (DIS), 4,144 theaters (+103) / $5.3M Fri. (-48%) / 3-day cume: $23.6M (-46%) / Total Cume: $286.7M / Wk 4
3.) Mother’s Day (OR) 3,141 theaters (+106) / $2.1M Fri. (-26%) / 3-day cume: $8.4M (0%)/Total: $20.1M/Wk 2
4). The Huntsman: Winter’s War (UNI) 2,901 theaters (-901) / $988K Fri. (-63%) / 3-day cume: $3.8M (-60%) / Total Cume: $40.6M / Wk 3
5). Zootopia (DIS), 2,077 theaters (-410) / $675K Fri. (-46%) / 3-day cume: $3.3M (-38%) / Total cume: $328.3M / Wk 10
6). Keanu (WB/New Line) 2,681 theaters (+23)/ $861K Fri. (-75%) / 3-day cume: $2.9M (-69%)/Total cume:$14.9M/ Wk 2
7.) Barbershop: The Next Cut (WB), 1,734 theaters (-576) / $625K Fri. (-62%) / 3-day cume: $2.6M (-57%) / Total cume: $48.7M / Wk 4
8.) Ratchet & Clank (GMY/FOC) 2,895 theaters (+4) / $434K Fri. (-71%) / 3-day cume: $2M (-58%)/Total cume: $7.7M /Wk 2
9). The Boss (UNI), 1,933 theaters (-890) / $455K Fri. (-62%) / 3-day cume: $1.8M (-57%) / Total cume: $59.2M / Wk 5
10). Batman v Superman (WB), 1,593 theaters (-737) / $263K Fri. (-72%) / 3-day cume: $1.1M (-71%) / Total cume: $327.3M / Wk 7
11). 24 (Tamil & Telugu) (CGX) 180 theaters / $310K Fri./ 3-day cume: $176.4M-$975K/ Wk 1
The Meddler (SPC) 53 theaters (+29) / $65K Fri. (+50%) / PTA: $6K / 3-day cume: $275K (+67%) / Total cume: $594K / Wk 3
A Bigger Splash (FSL) 5 theaters/ $32K Fri. / PTA: $22K / 3-day cume: $110K / Wk 1
2nd UPDATE, 12 PM: Captain America: Civil War‘s matinees are tracking 10%-13% behind Avengers: Age Of Ultron, putting the Disney/Marvel title on track for a $75 million-$80 million Friday and a projected weekend at this point of $178M-$188M. While that’s under Ultron‘s $191.27M, man, it’s really not something to cry about. Should Civil War hook that opening, it will make it the fifth-best domestic opening of all time ahead of Iron Man 3‘s $174M. A big plus for Disney this weekend: 21% of all colleges are off, a number that moves up to 36% on Monday, and then 53% next Friday.
Rival distribution chiefs are rejecting the notion that Disney’s The Jungle Book is biting into Civil War‘s business by stealing families away. A lot of that has to do with the size of Civil War‘s opening. “When Force Awakens opened to $248M, did Alvin and the Chipmunks bite into its opening? I don’t think so,” beamed one non-Disney distribution czar. Currently in its fourth frame, Jungle Book is set to make $21M, down 52% for the weekend. Between Civil War and Jungle Book, Disney is looking at $209M, plus some lagniappe from Zootopia. Open Road’s Mother’s Day likely will benefit from the Sunday holiday with a 30% decline, the best of last weekend’s wide entries, for $5.85M and a 10-day total of $17.6M.
In regard to opening days, Civil War is poised to rank as the sixth or seventh highest ever and the third best in May behind Ultron ($84.4M) and The Avengers ($80.8M).
PREVIOUS, 8:39 AM: Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War fired up summer’s cylinders last night with $25 million, making it the second-highest Thursday night preview among Marvel titles behind last year’s Avengers: Age Of Ultron which minted $27.6M. Industry projections have the opening for the Russo brothers-directed movie between $180M-$200M at 4,226 locations. Civil War is the only film on this year’s summer schedule to open unopposed by any major studio competition.
There’s a divide among B.O. analysts over whether Disney has an embarrassment of riches at the box office right now. Some think that the fourth-frame success of The Jungle Book at an estimated $20M-plus weekend could cut into Civil War‘s business. But then there are others who believe the Captain America threequel is iron strong, and has the potential to hit the upper echelon of its industry projection. Through three weeks, Jungle Book is at $263.1M stateside.
Last year at this time, Ultron went on to post the highest opening day in May with $84.4M. Among the highest opening weekends of all-time, Disney Marvel’s Avengers ($207.4M) and Ultron ($191.27M) own the third and fourth ranks. Imax hubs generated $3.1M for Civil War, besting the $3M made by Ultron in its opening night.
Among superhero Thursday night previews, Warner Bros.’ The Dark Knight Rises owns the record with $30.6M from midnight shows.
Civil War‘s theater count is not a high for May; that figure belongs to Paramount’s Iron Man 2 which was released in 4,380 locations on May 7, 2010.
Through Thursday, Civil War has already stacked up $291.2M in Disney’s coffers from its first week abroad. As it debuts in Russia, China and Argentina in sync with stateside this weekend, it will cross $300M today.
In the wake of Warner Bros. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, which was met with bitter fanboy and critical reaction contributing to its slowdown at the domestic B.O., Civil War has reaped a tremendous amount of buzz following its industry and CinemaCon screenings last month. The pic’s Rotten Tomatoes score is fresh at 92%, equally matched with the first 2012 Avengers.